The Conflict in Sudan Explained

Conflict in Sudan Background

Sudan is moving towards a civil war as violence rises in the capital
Two rival generals and their armies are fighting for control in the city of Hakthun and the battle is spreading across the country
Three billion dollars in aid is needed to help Sudan's Refugee crisis around a million people have been displaced after intense fighting broke out a month ago

Sudan's Geopolitical Importance

Sudan's location near the Suez Canal and the Horn of Africa makes it geopolitically important
Faraway countries are watching this conflict and preparing to get involved to secure their interests and to influence the next chapter of this country's history
Sudan has oil and gold which conflicts have always attracted outsiders looking to support the side that would serve their interests

Background on Sudan's Conflicts

Sudan has been in conflict since its founding with the first civil war starting a year before they gained independence from the British and Egypt
The fighting has often been between the North and the South fighting to control representation
Conflicts have always attracted outsiders looking to support the side that would serve their interests

Omar Abashir's Actions

Omar Abashir, a Sudanese army colonel, took over the government in a bloodless coup in the late 80s during the country's second civil war
He quickly dissolved the Sudanese Parliament, banned political parties, introduced Islamic law, and became a military dictator
To secure his power and fend off opposition, he assembled his own personal military force led by a commander nicknamed Hametti

"Sudan has been in conflict since its founding with the first civil war starting a year before they gained independence from the British and Egypt."

The conflict in Sudan erupts

Conflict between the North and South Sudan ends in 2011 and results in the division of the country, with South Sudan becoming the world's newest country, taking 75% of the oil reserves with them
This is a major blow to Sudan's economy; inflation runs wild, food prices rise, and al-Bashir doesn't have enough money to bribe political elites in the military
By 2019, protests demanding democracy erupt all over the country, with people taking to the streets and protesting against the dictator, al-Bashir

"The quality of life in Sudan plummets, and by 2019, they had had enough"

General al-Bashir overthrown

The Sudanese Army and the RSF, two separate military organizations, team up and overthrow al-Bashir, sending him to prison and taking over the government
General Abdel Fatah al-Burhan and warlord billionaire Hemeti are closely following in charge, cooperating in this transition and promising the protesters that they'll eventually hand the country over to a civilian leader who will bring in a democracy
However, they keep going back on their promise, ruling the country for years and continuously abusing and massacring the protesters

"He was able to use his tens of thousands of soldiers to control both the gold market and the borders of Sudan"

Hemeti refuses to be absorbed into the official Sudanese Army

In December 2022, al-Burhan agrees to give control of the government back to civilians but with the condition that the RSF is folded into the official Sudanese Army, so that he will be in control, not Hemeti
However, Hemeti, who has made hundreds of millions of dollars thanks to his command over the RSF, doesn't like this idea; he's not going to let his lucrative business military empire get swallowed by the government
Hemeti decides he has only one choice: to overthrow the government and lead the country himself

"He's not going to let his lucrative business military empire get swallowed by the government"

Hametti leads a coup

On April 15, 2023, Hemeti sends 2,000 of his men to al-Burhan's personal residence, which is a military compound; it leads to a shootout where 35 guards are killed, al-Burhan narrowly escapes
The conflict spreads throughout the capital of Khartoum and the country as a whole, with the government and Hemeti's RSF fighting over who will rule the country
Civilians flee their homes, fleeing the conflict and heading to neighboring countries Egypt, Chad, or South Sudan
Sudan's geostrategic importance: it sits astride the Nile, the lifeline to Egypt, and it's home to ports near the Suez Canal and Horn of Africa, where 10 percent of World Trade passes through

Control for Global Trade

Powerful countries around the world want to put military bases in Sudan.
Sudan holds vast resources like gold, silver, chromite, and iron that foreign countries want and need.
The military commander showdown has led to evaluation among powerful countries as to who they should support.

"Huge amounts of oil, powerful countries around the globe are always trying to put military bases here, they want to control bases and ports, simply because of its vital importance for global trade."

UAE's Involvement in Sudan's Internal Conflict

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a major player in Sudan's conflict resolution and has economic ties with Hemeti, the leader of Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The UAE has bought and refined most of the gold that comes from Hemeti's business empire.
Hemeti has allowed some of his military soldiers to fight on the UAE side in Yemen.
The UAE has made deals with the military government to secure access to minerals and ports.

"The UAE is a huge player in all of these. They buy and refine the majority of Sudan's gold, and a lot of it comes from Hemeti and his military business empire. The UAE has also paid Hemeti to use some of his soldiers to fight on their side in Yemen. So, there's this mutually beneficial alignment and relationship between these two."

The Role of Libya and Haftar

The warlord Khalifa Haftar has strong connections with Hemeti, who has loaned out some of his fighters to fight on Haftar's side in Libya.
Haftar is returning the favor by supporting his warlord ally by sending fuel shipments to the RSF.
Haftar's network also acts as a middleman in transferring supplies and weapons to RSF on behalf of Russia.
Russia is already present in Sudan in the form of private military called the Wagner Group.

"Haftar is already working as a middleman to transfer supplies and weapons to the RSF on behalf of Russia."

"Russia is already here in the form of the private military called the Wagner Group. They've been in Sudan for years supplying training for the RSF in exchange for getting on the lucrative gold trade in Sudan."

The Involvement of Russia and Sudanese Army

A CNN investigation showed that Russia is now providing significant support to RSF and has, therefore, chosen a side in Sudan's internal conflict.
Russia's shifting loyalty to the leader who would likely win and support their interests.
Russia is looking forward to building a naval base in the Red Sea and will need to work with Sudan to establish a foothold.
Ethiopia and Eritrea are neutral, but Ethiopia has recently invited Hemeti for a visit, and Eritrea has invited General Abraham.

"Russia is sending significant support for the RSF, implying that they've chosen a side in this conflict."

"In fact, Russia is already working with Sudan to facilitate their goal eventually to build a naval base here in the Red Sea."

Egypt's Role

Egypt naturally aligns itself with the government and the military of Sudan but cannot publicly be against the RSF.
The Egyptian economy relies on help from the UAE, which has sent them $100 billion in cash and other aid since 2013.
Ethiopia and Egypt are currently in negotiations regarding the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River.

"Egypt naturally aligns with the government of Sudan but cannot publicly be against the RSF. That's because the Egyptian economy is in trouble. Their currency has lost over half its value and they've been asking for help from the UAE."

International Support and Mediation

Saudi Arabia and the United States are offering to act as mediators in Sudan's conflict resolution.
China recently negotiated a deal with Saudi Arabia and Iran and might use this moment to broker a peace deal in Sudan.
Sudan's internal conflict has the potential to spiral into a full-on proxy war with the involvement of regional partners and foreign powers.
Sudanese people have always fought for their freedom against dictatorship and for democracy, but greedy leaders have kept them divided and broken.

"Saudi Arabia and the United States have offered to act as mediators to come in and try to broker some sort of peaceful resolution."

"Sudan's internal conflict has the potential to spiral into a full-on proxy war with the involvement of regional partners and foreign powers."